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Cross Spot level Previous day move (in pips) Supp. Res. Daily target

USD/CHF 1.0729 0.0080 1.0715 1.0780
Daily chart 1.0655 1.0800
Short-term chart 1.0620 1.0860
Comments
As expected, yesterday proved to be a day of range trading on the dollar. The USD/CHF edged up to 1.0769 before US figures were published and then dipped back down to its support zone at 1.0634. Market activity is likely to be stable as we head into the weekend. We remain neutral on the pair and expect to be trading in a range between 1.0600 and 1.0750.
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EUR/USD 1.4175 -0.0061 1.4115 1.4215
Daily chart 1.4095 1.4265
Short-term chart 1.4050 1.4290
Comments
Yesterday’s trading saw the EUR/USD seesaw between a low of 1.4120 and a high of 1.4292. The publication today of Germany’s IFO business climate index and of a revised Michigan Sentiment reading in the US is unlikely to disrupt the summer tranquillity on the markets. We will be continuing to play a range between 1.4100 and 1.4250 on the EUR/USD.
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USD/JPY 94.81 0.63 94.55 95.40
Daily chart 94.10 95.70
Short-term chart 93.90 95.85
Comments
The EUR/CHF cross rose back above the 1.5200 mark yesterday, on the back of significant acquisitions by Swiss companies. Volatility was considerably higher during the session, with the trading range between a low at 1.5160 and a high at 1.5244. We are expecting to close this week in a range between 1.5175 and 1.5225. We are awaiting publication this morning of the German IFO index.
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EUR/CHF 1.5208 0.0045 1.5180 1.5255
Daily chart 1.5150 1.5280
Short-term chart 1.5135 1.5325
Comments
Boosted by the uptick on equity markets, a weakened dollar and strong retail sales growth in the UK, sterling continued its advance against the greenback, breaking past the 1.6500 barrier to reach a high of 1.6585. The top of our range is still 1.6600, and another positive day for equity markets should take us there. Today sees publication of the University of Michigan consumer confidence reading for July.
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GBP/USD 1.6502 0.0022 1.6455 1.6535
Daily chart 1.6430 1.6560
Short-term chart 1.6390 1.6605
Comments
Boosted by the uptick on equity markets, a weakened dollar and strong retail sales growth in the UK, sterling continued its advance against the greenback, breaking past the 1.6500 barrier to reach a high of 1.6585. The top of our range is still 1.6600, and another positive day for equity markets should take us there. Today sees publication of the University of Michigan consumer confidence reading for July.
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UK retail sales were up 1.2% between May and June and by 2.9% from one year before.

The latest US unemployment figures were stable, with first-time jobless claims up 554,000 from the previous week (compared to consensus forecasts of a 550,000 increase). The four-week average of new claims for unemployment benefits declined to 566,000 last week, its lowest level since January.
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Also in the US, sales of previously owned homes rose by 3.6% in June to an annual rate of 4.89 million units. This notwithstanding, house prices were down 15.4% from one year before
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Forex Update for July 13 2009 - The top video clips of the week are here

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LONDON: The British economy is expected to record the biggest single year contraction since 1945, the Ernst Young ITEM Club said Monday. In its latest economic outlook, the think tank is forecasting the economy to shrink 4.4% in 2009, worse than the 3.5% decline predicted in April. The group sees recovery in 2010 with a 0.5% growth. According to the ITEM Club, hopes of recovery are running ahead of reality and sees no sustainable improvement until world trade begins to pick up. The main risks remain on the downside and include the threat posed by the H1N1 swine flue virus, which could reduce a further 3% from GDP this year and 1.7% in 2010. Companies should review their plans for this kind of contingency. New home-working and video-conferencing facilities offer a way to cope with this, while retail and industrial units should check their stock levels and supply chains. Peter Spencer, chief economic adviser to the Ernst Young ITEM Club said, "Economic patient has been in trauma, but thanks to the paramedics at the Treasury and the Bank of England who pumped billions of pounds worth of medicine into the economy, the patient has been stabilized for now." But he said, "it remains unclear how quick and complete recovery will be and there is still a serious chance of a relapse." The short term outlook stays gloomy as credit remains constrained and the lack of competition in the banking sector indicates lending to consumers and corporates would continue to be expensive and restricted with no further stimulus available to work through the system. Further, the think tank forecasts no change in the 0.5% interest rate well into next year, with the significant degree of spare capacity that exists ensuring that policy would need to be tightened only very gradually after that. Company cut-backs in employment and earnings continued to put pressure on consumer recession. But, rise in unemployment was not bad as was originally feared. Still, the think tank expects unemployment around 8.8% of the labor force by next spring. Disposable incomes were under severe pressure and consumer spending would possibly weaken again over the second half of this year. Hampered by a weak housing market, consumer spending will shrink 3.2% in 2009 and a further 0.2% next year. Meanwhile, disposable income is set to rise only 1% in 2009 and again in 2010. The report said business investment would fall by 10.5% this year with an additional decline of 1% in 2010. At the same time, private housing investment would plunge 27% in 2009.
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Currency Symbol Buying Selling Charts    Australian Dollar AUD 102.2 103.2    Bahrain Dinar BHD 261.5 263    Canadian Dollar CAD 98.6 99.9    China Yuan CNY 13.5 14    Danish Krone DKK 17.75 18    Euro EUR 133 134.5    Hong Kong Dollar HKD 12.55 12.85    Indian Rupee INR 1.7 1.8    Japanese Yen JPY 1.06 1.11    Kuwaiti Dinar KWD 349 351    Malaysian Ringgit MYR 28 28.5    NewZealand $ NZD 77 78    Norwegians Krone NOK 17.75 17.95    Omani Riyal OMR 257.5 259    Qatari Riyal QAR 27 27.4    Saudi Riyal SAR 26.55 26.85    Singapore Dollar                                                           SGD 79.9 81.1    Swedish Korona SEK 15.3 15.6    Swiss Franc CHF 107 108.2    Thai Bhat THB 2.6 2.7    U.A.E Dirham AED 27.3 27.45    UK Pound Sterling GBP 157 158.2    US Dollar USD 99.4 99.7

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