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Implications Of A US Dollar Bull Market

The FT’s Alphaville has an interesting article entitled A dollar bully. It’s about UBS analyst George Magnus, who sees a burgeoning US dollar bull market, slowing emerging market growth and warns about the end of the commodity cycle.

He also draws an interesting parallel between times of USD strength and financial instability.

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Commodity Currencies Take A Spill

USDCAD is at the highest since June and AUDUSD at the lowest since October.

Strong AUDUSD bids ahead of 1.0200 and stops below. The correlations have clearly changed. Strength in the US economy is attracting investment and hurting commodities.

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NZDUSD Sinks Below Uptrends

Some substantial technical damage on the NZDUSD chart today, breaking both a minor and major uptrend.

The kiwi is easily the worst performer today.

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If You Don’t Like Whipsaws, Don’t Trade Gold

It seems every time there is a jump or a fall, there is a monster on the other side of the the market waiting to jump in. Gold up $14 now to $1607 after falling to a session low of $1585 thirty minutes ago.

Bernanke is taking questions now but his answers can’t be interpreted one way or the other.

Goldman cut its 2013 and 2014 gold forecasts earlier today. They see gold at $1600 in 2013 vs $1810 previously.

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USD/JPY Slides Toward 91.00

USD/JPY fell through bids at 91.20 as Bernanke offers no hint that he’s in any hurry to taper asset purchases.

There is strong demand at 90.05/00 with stops below. More demand, albeit smaller, is seen ahead of yesterday’s low of 90.86 and extending down to 90.75.

Looking at the entirety of the USD/JPY move since mid-November, it has been long overdue for a correction. It appears to be breaking out to the upside after the appointment of Kuroda but there has been a massive reversal. From a purely technical perspective, you have to be wary of correction toward 90.00/88.00.

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