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Short-term Technical Analysis

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Cross Spot level Previous day move (in pips) Supp. Res. Daily target

USD/CHF 1.0729 0.0080 1.0715 1.0780
Daily chart 1.0655 1.0800
Short-term chart 1.0620 1.0860
Comments
As expected, yesterday proved to be a day of range trading on the dollar. The USD/CHF edged up to 1.0769 before US figures were published and then dipped back down to its support zone at 1.0634. Market activity is likely to be stable as we head into the weekend. We remain neutral on the pair and expect to be trading in a range between 1.0600 and 1.0750.
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EUR/USD 1.4175 -0.0061 1.4115 1.4215
Daily chart 1.4095 1.4265
Short-term chart 1.4050 1.4290
Comments
Yesterday’s trading saw the EUR/USD seesaw between a low of 1.4120 and a high of 1.4292. The publication today of Germany’s IFO business climate index and of a revised Michigan Sentiment reading in the US is unlikely to disrupt the summer tranquillity on the markets. We will be continuing to play a range between 1.4100 and 1.4250 on the EUR/USD.
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USD/JPY 94.81 0.63 94.55 95.40
Daily chart 94.10 95.70
Short-term chart 93.90 95.85
Comments
The EUR/CHF cross rose back above the 1.5200 mark yesterday, on the back of significant acquisitions by Swiss companies. Volatility was considerably higher during the session, with the trading range between a low at 1.5160 and a high at 1.5244. We are expecting to close this week in a range between 1.5175 and 1.5225. We are awaiting publication this morning of the German IFO index.
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EUR/CHF 1.5208 0.0045 1.5180 1.5255
Daily chart 1.5150 1.5280
Short-term chart 1.5135 1.5325
Comments
Boosted by the uptick on equity markets, a weakened dollar and strong retail sales growth in the UK, sterling continued its advance against the greenback, breaking past the 1.6500 barrier to reach a high of 1.6585. The top of our range is still 1.6600, and another positive day for equity markets should take us there. Today sees publication of the University of Michigan consumer confidence reading for July.
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GBP/USD 1.6502 0.0022 1.6455 1.6535
Daily chart 1.6430 1.6560
Short-term chart 1.6390 1.6605
Comments
Boosted by the uptick on equity markets, a weakened dollar and strong retail sales growth in the UK, sterling continued its advance against the greenback, breaking past the 1.6500 barrier to reach a high of 1.6585. The top of our range is still 1.6600, and another positive day for equity markets should take us there. Today sees publication of the University of Michigan consumer confidence reading for July.
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UK Retail

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UK retail sales were up 1.2% between May and June and by 2.9% from one year before.

The latest US unemployment figures were stable, with first-time jobless claims up 554,000 from the previous week (compared to consensus forecasts of a 550,000 increase). The four-week average of new claims for unemployment benefits declined to 566,000 last week, its lowest level since January.
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Also in the US, sales of previously owned homes rose by 3.6% in June to an annual rate of 4.89 million units. This notwithstanding, house prices were down 15.4% from one year before
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Market news

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Forex reserves fall to $11.844 billion

KARACHI: The country's foreign exchange reserves declined to $11.844 billion on the week ending on July 18, 2009 as compared with $12.239 billion last week, data released by the State Bank of Pakistan showed on Thursday.

Total reserves showed a decrease of $395 million during the week. However, the State Bank's reserves witnessed a major decline of $433 million to $8.428 billion, as compared to $8.861 billion last week.
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The reserves held by the banks (other than SBP) witnessed an increase of $38 million to reach $3.416 billion, as compared to $3.378 billion last week. Foreign reserves had hit a record high of $16.5 billion in October 2007 but fell steadily to $6.6 billion by November of last year, largely because of a soaring import bill.

Pakistan agreed in November to an International Monetary Fund (IMF) emergency loan package of $7.6 billion to avert a balance of payments crisis and shore up reserves. The fund recently reviewed the country's performance under the deal, and its board is set to meet next month to decide on a third loan tranche of roughly $875 million. The country has also requested about $4 billion in additional financing from the IMF as ‘insurance’ against the economic crisis. staff report

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